BILL@ya1136

 
joined: 2013-08-24
i love this game. i hate this game.
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pit falls of loyalty ( you retire, then you start working like hell )

it was supposed to be a casual part time job. i retired 5 years ago at 52 years of age. i invested the money i had when i sold the business and building, and was making a comfortable income, more than what i made working. the first couple of weeks i would go to the danforth on a monday or tuesday and sit at a cafe patio and watch the working world go by. it was like playing hookie from school. it was wonderful. i would travel all across the province of ontario with my wife, exploring all the little towns, enjoying the freedom and sometimes just going to where the road would lead us. my wife was still working, so with the combined incomes we didn't have a care in the world.
my cousin called me one night , "hey , bill, remember when you were talking with my brother about that driving job? that you would like to do part time to make some extra bucks? do you still want to do it?'
i said, sure.
at first, for the first year, there weren't that many driving runs. it was nice to get out of the house and do something. i wasn't quite happy with the amount of work, maybe an extra run a week would be fine. i met a guy named stephen on these runs and we became buddies. he saw how i would always show up early, was easy to get along with. he told me, if i wanted to make a bit extra, he could get me a job as location support personnel for the film industry. all you really do, he said, is sit in your car and watch over production vehicles. 200 bucks a shift, and you don't have to do anything, maybe lay down a few cones on occassion. EASY JOB.

i said, sure.

and at first, i was getting a couple film shifts ( night shifts ) and a couple driving runs and it was perfect. then my cousin stopped doing driving runs, and were short a driver, then another driver disappeared. since i was so reliable and STUPID loyal, i never turned down a shift, so one of the bosses, a 5 foot woman who is a total shark, was calling me frequently for driving runs. suddenly i was the guy calling other drivers to organize runs....and getting the bank drafts. suddenly i was the captain. the film industry all of a sudden boomed this year. my film boss, also a woman, was texting me constantly, setting up night shifts and i would never say no...because i am STUPID loyal....and i would end up doing a 7pm to 7am night shift on some film set in some seedy bum fuck location in hamilton and then drive to the lot for a driving run by 9 am the same morning for a run to ottawa!!! thats a 10 hour run at best. a couple times i've done 48 hour work binges. and boy, is my wife ever letting me have it. she is yelling at me and swearing like a sailor. "you idiot!! are you trying to kill yourself?? go to bed right now!! look at you, you can't even walk straight!!! you aren't even hearing what i am saying right now!!" and i would look at her with glazed eyes and go.." hhmmm?? "
and then THUNK!!! a kick in the shin. you know, thats one thing about my wife, she doesn't play "nice." even when we joke around, she is too rough and is a master of cheap shots. a couple nights ago she had ordered me a beautiful veal dinner, and she was looking for a place on the plate to put the dinner roll. "do you want the bread?' she asked, and i said, WITH A SMILE, " no, i don't want the FUCKING bread." ( i was joking, ok? ) and THUNK!! like wood hitting wood....she got me right on the shin and damn it hurt like hell. one day as i was leaving for work, and she was grumpy about it, i said, " but you really are happy when i am not here, right? you like it when i am not here. that way i don't bug you so much, right?" i don't even want to tell you what she did to me for that....anyways, back to what i was talking about.

i am working like hell, day and night. i have two lady bosses, who are serious business and very capable, relying on me. one is a 5 foot shark, the other is an ex budweiser girl and a total tiger. but you know what? i've never made so much money....between my investment income and the income from both jobs....i'll be able to retire AGAIN in 5 years. through it all, i've met some great people, especially the crazy guys i go on drives with. i haven't laughed so much in years. when me and those guys get together , its like being in high school again. i don't want to go to jail, so i won't tell you some of the antics we get up to. of course, 3 of them were laughing at me on one run when i was getting chewed out by the 5 foot shark on speaker phone because i forgot something. i was taking it, quiet like mouse and these guys are making faces and pointing at me while i am trying to keep my composure. buncha pricks.

but i have to say, just the other night, as i was coming back from a driving run to london ontario, it was a dark clear night, the lights of the city were approaching in the distance....and i felt to alive...so vital....and the world looked so beautiful. and i am just going to keep on going and taking whatever comes my way. i am positively radiating....everything looks so wonderful...it is beautiful. maybe i am just weird. sometimes even i don't quite understand myself.






2 short jokes which might crack you up

a wife refused to have sex with her husband because she was going to the gynecologist the next day and wanted to be clean, untouched and presentable. the husband thought about it and said, "you're not going to the dentist tomorrow, are you??"


an old man and a little boy were walking through a dark forest. the little boy said, "this is a creepy forest, i am so scared!" and the old man said, "you think you're scared? i'm going to have to walk back out of it alone!"


some horse racing methods i have discovered and will share and maybe you can refine them

like most discoveries, i fell upon this by accident and it was because of something that would frustrate me at first. i call this THE SUPER FAVORITE. i was testing another system i bought. it uses the odds of the last three races. you add them up and if they are less than 12, it provides the ideal odds range  to bet these horses because they are overlays. i won't tell too much about this system, since i bought it and don't want to get in trouble, but it is called "across the board overlays." you don't find alot of races where a horse fits the requirement of the odds total, but what frustrated me me was when i would find a race where more than one, sometimes even three horses all had odds in there last 3 races that total 12 or less when added up. this system, generally, focuses on horses that have very low odds in their last three races, and usually are the favorite or very close to it in all three of those races. the frustration came when i would finally find a horse that qualified this way then then there is another horse or two in the same race that also qualify. this is when i noticed something......when there are more than 1 qualifiers, especially more than 2 qualifiers....whoever ends up being the favorite at post time is a SUPER FAVORITE and is almost damned sure to win. these horses were ranked , by the betting public, as top contenders in ALL of their last three races and whichever horse out of these ends up being the favorite tonight simply has to be one hell of a horse. something is up....especially if it is a hot favorite. now, i made a previous post about when to bet beaten favorites....this SUPER FAVORITE, is probably one of the best beaten favorites to bet next time, ESPECIALLY if its odds remain low or it is a favorite again. i did a short study, because it is tedious to keep trach of when a horse runs again etc.....but out of 10 races, where a beaten SUPER FAVORITE ran again....7 out 10 races winners, 2 seconds and 1 third. and these horses win with authority and run very determined races. if anybody has any ideas or wants to tweak this method, maybe you will give me a post. 
 the nest system i've been tracking started as a joke and is so ridiculously simple i am having a hard time believing the results. i use this at the harness races and it is a long shot system. the system??  whichever horse has the fastest THIRD QUARTER FRACTION in its last race. that is basically it...it is stupid that this works so often. people focus on the first quarter speed of a horse...or the final ( FOURTH ) quarter speed, and completely ignore the THIRD QUARTER.  if you go and check out the last month of harness racing at woodbine/mohawk and and see the results of the horses with the fastest third quarter fraction, you will laugh and how often they win and how huge the payoffs are. i am just tracking this method but i would not bet these horses at odds lower than 5 -1.  they are coming in at 20 -1...30 -1.....i got one at 60 -1 ....and all it took was about 10 seconds to scan the program. thats it...ONE FACTOR HANDICAPPING.  there are some things or rules to consider, it tends to help the selection process. the time should  be on the same track ( but you can catch some horses coming from lower class half mile tracks that show a third quarter time even faster than the horses its running agsinst have shown at woodbine/mohawk ). the horse should show improvement in its position and lengths behind, it doesn't have to be much. this enforces that its fast third quarter time was a good effort compared to the other horses and that it just wasn't only running AS FAST as everyone else. if it shows a fast third quarter time and EVERYONE ELSE was also going that fast, because the horse hasn't improved or has lost ground, then the third quarter time doesn't suggest anything exceptional. works best when the selected horse is starting from the inside post positions and has to work less to get a good position at the start or have to come from too far back ( for woodbine/mohawk, post position 6 and lower, post 6 is actually the best performing post position for some reason ). avoid races where there are ties. only bet when the odds are generous, above 5 - 1 at the very least. these horses tend to be overlays, i believe, because the betting public focuses on early speed ( first quarter ) or late speed ( fourth quarter ) and overlooks the third quarter fraction and these horses end up being overlays. when these horses go off at 10-1 to 15- 1 i feel as confident betting on them as if they were at 3 - 1 odds. do not bet on them if they finished 1st or 2nd in their last race. you won't be getting odds and the horse has already been spent. there are certain races i will avoid, these being when the selection had a decent race and looks fairly well suited for the race but is the second biggest long shot or the biggest long shot and there are two horses in the race that are BOTH hot favorites and below  2-1 odds. something is up there.....the betting public can overlook betting value, but not by this much.  the show payoffs are amazing and i would bet these horses in the following betting unit amount : 2 to win 2 to place 10 to show. these horses pay more to show than favorites or second favorites pay to win, you get all your money and then some. if you don't mind riding long streaks of losing, playing them to win is probably the best in the long run. they win about 25 percent of the time, in my estimation. if you have any ideas about these, or tweaks....give me a post. ( it is damned near impossible to have a rigid, completely mechanical method and set of rules when it comes to horse racing. but the experience you gain trying this method will develop a good instinct and you might find a few more rules or exceptions......however, i find when a system become too rigid, a lot of opportunities are missed, and if the rules are too lax, a lot of money is thrown away. yet i believe, just blindly betting the horse with the third quarter lowest fraction every time, when there are no ties, will wield you a profit. the payoffs are just too big and frequent )


p.s  one race result to illustrate the value you can get and why value is important. the 10th race at woodbine ( harness racing )  december 21.  the number 4 horse, PREMIER CABERNET  HAD THE FASTEST THIRD QUARTER FRACTION  27 3/5 SECONDS.  it improved its lengths behind and had also made a big move to challenge for the lead during the third quarter when it ran that fast fraction. going off at 9-1.  there was a very hot favorite that was dropping in class called MACK MY KISS, going off at 3/5. this means if you bet 5 bucks on this horse, you get back 8 bucks...a 3 dollar profit on your 5 dollar bet.......SHIT.  it looked like PREMIER CABERNET was going to fade as they got to the top of the stretch with two horses ahead of him, but it rallied and got the motor running and about halfway down the stretch it looked like it was actually going to win it and just missed by a nose, so close!!!  MACK MY KISS won. here is the point......i bet in units of 2 to win 2 to place and 10 to show. lets assume that is 2 dollars to win and place and 10 dollars to  show......MACK MY KISS paid a lousy  $3.30 to win....a lousy $2.80 to place  and a shitty $2.50 to show ( for each 2 dollar bet )  if i bet him i would have gotten back,  3.30 + 2.80 + ( 5 x 2.50 = 12.50) for a total of  18.60 - my intial 14.00 dollar bet = $4.80 profit....and we won the race!!  but i bet PREMIER CABERNET, who just came second, and i got  8.90 back for the place bet and 5 x 3.70 =  18.50 for the show bet for a total of  27.40 - 14.00 (initial bet ) =  13.40 profit.....essentially double the amount i bet. almost 3 times more than the winner.  this is why...it is not about picking winners, its about betting on value. i don't know why people will pile on a horse like this and bet into a horse going off at 3/5 odds, but it is good that they do, they create opportunities for me.  my horse paid more to SHOW than the winner paid to WIN for christ sake. 

one more simple angle for horse racing, when to bet beaten favorites.

a beaten favorite is a horse that had the most money bet on it and had the lowest odds in its last race and lost the race. the betting public , by making it the favorite, have ranked it is the best horse in the race, usually in a field of 8 to 9 horses. what has been observed in horse racing, is that losing favorites tend to 'bounce back' in their nest race and win more often than they should next time out. quite often, if they don't race very well when they are the favorite, the betting public tends not to bet as much on them next time out, and these horses 'bounce back' and win at very generous odds. so, when is it the best time to bet a losing favorite?? i am only going to give you the most basic and simple form of this method : the best time to bet on a losing favorite in its next race is WHEN IT IS THE FAVORITE AGAIN.  that is the nuts and bolts of it. there are a few other factors, like, make sure the last race it was in, where it lost as the favorite is NOT the fasted race it has ever had or the fastest time in its last 6 starts. for some reason, horses that ran their fastest time in their last race do not win as often as they should next time out. weird, but true. a beaten favorite that becomes the favorite again in its next race has a staggering win rate than can approach 66 percent. these horses are almost certain to run at least third, a SHOW BET more than 90 percent of the time. the time factor helps and the horse having one of the top 5 drivers/riders helps but basically....he was the favorite last week and lost, tonight he is the favorite again......bet that sucker!!! this is a brutally strong angle. 

for those of you that like horse racing, a very clever method of selecting high percentage winners that is a hidden factor

the beauty of this method is that it is invisible by looking at the racing programs past starts. for this method you need to see the chart results of the last race a horse was in. here is why, you can, for example see in the programs past performances that a horse finished second by half a length in its las race, and find another horse that also finished second by half a length, yet one of them is a vastly better bet than the other, regardless of time. let me explain first that horses that have won in their last race are more likely to win again than horses that did not win in their last race. similarily, horses that finished second have a better chance of winning than horses that did not do as good as second place. but not all wins or second places are the same. a horse that just manages to win by half a length will not do as well, in its next race, as a horse that wins by 6 lengths, or 2 lengths,  etc. basically, horse that blow away the field by large margins tend to do much better in their next race than horses that win by close margins. sometimes, huge margins are concealed by the way the race programs past performances are presented. what if the program shows a horse won by half a length, but when you look at the chart of the race, you see that the winner and the second place horse were BOTH AHEAD of the rest of the horses by more than 6 lengths?? all the program will show you is that the horse won by half a length and you won't know that the winner and the second place horse obliterated the field. THIS is what you look for in the charts, but you focus only on second place finishers that were ahead of the rest of the field by 6 lengths or more. what the average race goer will see is a horse that finished second by half a length, what you WILL SEE AND KNOW is that this horse almost won the race by more than 6 lengths. we focus on betting second place finishers in this manner solely because horses that won their last race tend to get over bet and usually you will not get big odds on these horses. but second placers get less betting action and have much more generous odds. what are the odds a horse that finished second, WITHIN A LENGTH OF THE LEADER ( A CLOSE RACE ) and was 6 lengths or more ahead of the rest of the horses?? 40 percent.  this is a staggering win rate, most favorites average 33 percent. and the beauty of this is that this information is hidden and not apparent on the daily racing form.  for a 40 percent win rate you should be getting odds just above even money.....about 6-5, 7-5 odds......but these hidden second place finishers, which essentially are 6 length or more winners will go off at much bigger odds than those in their next race. you'll get 3-1, 4-1 even bigger odds than 10-1 on these horses the nest time they race and they will win 40 percent of the time. you're welcome. this will work both for harness racing and thoroughbred racing. ( the only draw back is you don't  get many plays but do you want to bet a lot of races or make money? the few successful racevtrack players do not bet every race but wait for these solid plays and bet big when they see them. )